A comparison of breast cancer in India with western nations like the US and with our own neighbour, China, gives a good idea of the trends it is following. This comparison is obtained from the Globocan Project, the latest of which is for the year 2012. You can find it HERE. The following charts and tables are followed by a discussion on them.
Collectively, US, India and China account for almost one third of the global breast cancer burden. Persistent efforts over last 40 to 50 years in the US have resulted in a large proportion of women presenting in early stages and there has been a consistent decrease in the death rates due to breast cancer, even though the incidence of breast caner is rising steadily. These statistics from IARC (WHO) reflect the same, and offer a good insight for developing nations like India, as to what can be done. The rate of rise of breast cancer in India (as you will see shortly below), is so rampant, that if we do not act now, we are in for a major shock in the next twenty years. India has a long way to go! See the images below and read the discussion below that and you will understand why.
Both the above images essentially represent the same data. Please read the highlighted numbers. Concentrate on the following two points:
Incidence means the numbers of women detected with breast cancer in that particular year. The year in the above images is 2012. So the numbers in 'Incidence' represent the number of women who were newly detected with breast cancer for the year 2012. They are underlined with a red line in the column 'count' in the second chart.
Mortality means the numbers of women who died of breast cancer in that particular year. In the second chart above, the mortality numbers have been highlighted with red arrows in the column 'count'
232,714 women were newly detected wth breast cancer
43,909 women died of breast cancer
232714 / 43909 = 5.29 = round it off to 5 or 6. So roughly, in the US, for every 5 or 6 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer, one lady is dying of it.
187,213 women were newly detected wth breast cancer
47,984 women died of breast cancer
187213 / 47984 = 3.90 = round it off to 4. So roughly, in China, for every 4 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer, one lady is dying of it.
144,937 women were newly detected wth breast cancer
70,218 women died of breast cancer
144937 / 70218 = 2.06 = round it off to 2. So roughly, in India, for every 2 women newly diagnosed with breast cancer, one lady is dying of it.
These ratios are not the best way of assessing the situation, but they definitely give a rough idea on how the country is coping up with breast cancer and what can be predicted for the future. If you compare these three countries, you can easily make out that India has the maximum number of women dying of breast cancer, and that number is huge (70,000!). What the Unites States has achieved today (a decrease in mortality, even with an increase in numbers of women diagnosed with breast cancer) has taken several decades of untiring, persistent efforts. And they started that, when their death rate was not so high at all. So, for India, with a death rate of 70,000 and ever increasing, even if we start today, positive results will start showing not before the next 25 to 30 years at least, if not more.
Since more patients (in India) turn up in later stages, they do not survive long irrespective of the best treatment they may get, and hence the mortality is fairly high. There are lots of reasons for late presentations including lack of awareness, shyness on part of patients, social stigma, ignorance of doctors (patients present on time, but doctors are not aware and they delay treatment), and many other causes.
In India, the overall incidence of breast cancer is less as comapred to the US. But if you see the actual number of cases, India is not far behind. In the year 2012, there were about 2,32,000 breast cancer cases reported in the US, whereas in India, 1,45,000 new cases were diagnosed. This implies that, though, because of India's population, the percentage of total women affected seems less, the breast cancer burden in India has almost reached about 2/3rds of that of the US and is steadily rising.
NOTE: Globocan 2012 disclaimer states that, "The increasing availability of incidence data from cancer registries and mortality data from vital statistics offices, coupled with the fine-tuning of the estimation methods means that the current incidence and mortality estimates for 2012 cannot be directly compared to estimates from previous versions (e.g. GLOBOCAN 2008)." But for a rough comparison to see the trends, I believe, these data are good enough and give us a fair idea. The upper image below reflects data for the year 2008. The lower image below reflects data for the year 2012. A comparison between the rates recorded in Globocan 2008 and Globocan 2012, gives us an idea of rapidity with which breast cancer is rising in various countries and the death rates as well. Once again, we concentrate on US, China and India.
Compare the incidence and death rates of the three countries. For the year 2012 (as compared to the year 2008), United States reported 4000 more deaths, China reported 4000 more deaths, and India reported 17,000 more deaths! If we consider that the number of deaths reported in 2008 may have been lesser, still, 17000 is a huge number to comprehend with. You can very well judge, what India would face, if such trend continues.
The following upper two images represent data from Globocan 2008 and Globocan 2012 and show the change in trend in India. In the coloured pie chart, the 'pink' colour represents numbers for breast cancer and the 'ochre yellow' colour represents the numbers for cervical cancer. You can yourself see the changes over just 4 years, where breast cancer is overtaking cervical cancer! The third image has a bar chart, which reflects the common cancers in males and females in India, for the year 2012, along with their numbers.
For decades together, cervical cancer was the most common cancer in women in India and more deaths in women in India were attributed to cervical cancer than any other cancer. This was the scene for almost 4 decades (or more). But over last ten years or so, breast cancer has been rising steadily, and for the first time now, breast cancer is the most common cancer in women in India, way ahead of cervical cancer. Both, the incidence, as well as deaths, due to breast cancer are more than cervical cancer. Part of it is due to an actual decrease in the incidence of cervical cancer. But most of it, will be because of rapid rise in the numbers of breast cancer cases.
The upper image below shows the prediction of numbers of deaths due to breast caner in 2015 and the lower image shows the predictions of the numbers of newly detected cases of breast cancer.
For the years 2015, there will be an estimated 1,55,000 new cases of breast cancer and about 76000 women in India are expected to die of the disease. The gap only seems to be widening, which means, we need to work aggressively on early detection.
India is experiencing an unprecedented rise in the number of breast cancer cases across all sections of society, as are also other countries. There is no way we can prevent breast cancer, but we can definitely detect it early and treat adequately. Only and ONLY with early detection, can we achieve a longer survival. And to make people aware of this early detection, it is going to need a lot of efforts, especially, since Indian society is so deep rooted in myths and alternative treatment and unusual illogical beliefs. It will take a lot of time to reverse this and get people on track. And the time is NOW. Presently, India already has one of the worst survivals from breast cancer, in the world (as you already saw from the numbers above); has the highest number of women dying from breast cancer in the world; and India ranks number one in the numbers of healthy life years lost (DALY - Disability Adjusted Life Years) due to breast cancer; and if this trend is not broken, I cant imagine how bad it will become.